During Cleveland Browns general manager Phil Savage's last press conference a couple of weeks ago, he made the following quote in an attempt to explain the Browns performances of the past two seasons:
"When you go back and really look at how this team has been put together, you have five draft picks from 1999 to 2003 on this ball club. I don’t know the raw numbers, but I bet there is not another team out there that has five players from 1999-2003 that is winning."
In essence, with that quote, Savage is attempting to correlate draft success from three to seven years ago with current on-the-field success.
So, in a fit of energy that usually doesn't happen around here until shortly before last call, we attempted to take Savage to task and verify his line of thinking and produce the raw numbers.
After extensive research by The OBR, we can definitively conclude that the general manger is indeed right. And somewhat wrong. All in the same breath.
From 1999 to 2003, only 10.6% of the Browns 47 draft picks remain with the club. Of those, a scant 4.3% are starters, and one of those, Ryan Pontbriand, is a long snapper.
For all intents and purposes, the Browns are the worst in the league in those two categories. Minnesota has the lowest percentage of players still on the roster from that draft period with a mere 9.8%, while only the Broncos (a winning-team anomaly at 13% of draft picks still on the roster) and the Titans (7.3% of their starters) even comes close to the Browns in either category.
The table below presents percentage of starters from the 1999-2003 drafts for all 32 NFL teams, along with their won-loss percentages:
|
|
W-L Pct |
|
Starter |
2006 |
2005 |
| STEELERS |
25.0% |
0.462 |
0.688 |
| BENGALS |
21.1% |
0.615 |
0.688 |
| COLTS |
18.9% |
0.769 |
0.875 |
| RAIDERS |
18.4% |
0.154 |
0.250 |
| RAVENS |
18.4% |
0.769 |
0.375 |
| LIONS |
17.9% |
0.154 |
0.313 |
| JAGUARS |
17.0% |
0.615 |
0.750 |
| PATRIOTS |
17.0% |
0.692 |
0.625 |
| SEAHAWKS |
17.0% |
0.615 |
0.813 |
| PANTHERS |
16.2% |
0.462 |
0.688 |
| BILLS |
14.7% |
0.462 |
0.313 |
| NY JETS |
14.7% |
0.538 |
0.250 |
| CARDINALS |
13.6% |
0.308 |
0.313 |
| TEXANS |
13.6% |
0.308 |
0.125 |
| CHARGERS |
13.2% |
0.846 |
0.563 |
| COWBOYS |
13.2% |
0.615 |
0.563 |
| PACKERS |
13.0% |
0.385 |
0.250 |
| REDSKINS |
12.5% |
0.308 |
0.625 |
| BEARS |
12.2% |
0.846 |
0.688 |
| SAINTS |
12.1% |
0.692 |
0.188 |
| GIANTS |
11.9% |
0.538 |
0.688 |
| BUCS |
11.1% |
0.231 |
0.688 |
| CHIEFS |
11.1% |
0.538 |
0.625 |
| EAGLES |
10.8% |
0.538 |
0.375 |
| FALCONS |
10.3% |
0.538 |
0.500 |
| VIKINGS |
9.8% |
0.462 |
0.563 |
| RAMS |
9.5% |
0.385 |
0.375 |
| 49ERS |
9.1% |
0.385 |
0.250 |
| BRONCOS |
8.7% |
0.538 |
0.813 |
| DOLPHINS |
8.1% |
0.462 |
0.563 |
| TITANS |
7.3% |
0.462 |
0.250 |
| BROWNS |
4.3% |
0.308 |
0.375 |
Between 2004 and now, the five teams with the worst records were the Raiders and 49ers (11-34), Lions and Texans (13-32) and, of course, the Browns (14-31). Those teams rank 5th, 25th, 18th, 11th and 31st in percentage of draft picks still on their rosters or on a reserve list of their drafting club.
Even more striking--in an anomaly kind of way--is the percentages of starters gained from the 1999-2003 draft period. Those five teams rank 4th, 28th, 6th, 14th and 32nd in the entire league.
Only one team with a losing record--the Raiders--can lay claim to a spot in the top ten on both lists. Conversely, only seven teams with a winning record the last three years--the Cowboys, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs--reside outside of the top ten on both lists.
And the place where draft day success is correlated into success on the field is no more evident than in the Browns' own division.
The Steelers (32.5%), Ravens (28.9%) and Bengals (23.7%) rank 1st, 3rd and 8th, respectively, in percentage of players currently on their rosters from the '99, '00, '01, '02 and '03 drafts.
With 25% of their current starters drafted between 1999 and 2003, the Steelers are far and away the league leaders, with the Bengals (21.1%) and Ravens (18.4%) sitting at second and tied for fourth, respectively.
Once again, compare the percentages from the above two paragraphs with the Browns' 10.6% and 4.3% from the same period, and the reasons behind the 1-10 record in divisional games the last two seasons becomes a little bit clearer and easier to understand. Not accept, but understand.
What does all of this mean? While success in the draft is not the be-all, end-all, it sure as hell doesn't hurt. And, unfortunately, right now the Browns are hurting, in large part due to the negligence of the organization from the years 1999 to 2003.
LIST OF EACH NFL TEAM AND THEIR PERFORMANCE IN THE DRAFT FROM 1999-2003
PATRIOTS
'99: 1/9 (backups: Kevin Faulk (running back, second round))
'00: 2/10 (starters: Tom Brady (quarterback, sixth round); backups: Patrick Pass (running back, seventh round))
'01: 2/10 (starters: Richard Seymour (defensive tackle, first round), Matt Light (offensive tackle, second round))
'02: 2/6 (starters: Daniel Graham (tight end, first round); backups: Jarvis Green (defensive end, fourth round))
'03: 5/10 (starters: Ty Warren (defensive end, first round), Asante Samuel (cornerback, fourth round), Dan Koppen (center, fifth round), Tully Banta-Cain (linebacker, seventh round); currently on reserve lists: Eugene Wilson (defensive back, second round))
Roster: 12 out of 45 26.7% (4)
Starters: 8 out of 47 17% (8)
DOLPHINS
'99: 0/8
'00: 0/6
'01: 2/9 (starters: Chris Chambers (wide receiver, second round); backups: Travis Minor (third round))
'02: 2/5 (starters: Randy McMichael (tight end, fourth round; backups: Seth McKinney (guard, third round))
'03: 1/9 (starters: Yeremiah Bell (safety, sixth round))
Roster: 5 out of 37 13.5% (29)
Starters: 3 out of 37 8.1% (30)
BILLS
'99: 1/10 (starters: Peerless Price (wide receiver, second round))
'00: 0/7
'01: 2/12 (starters: Nate Clements (cornerback, first round), Aaron Schobel (defensive end, second round))
'02: 2/10 (backups: Josh Reed (wide receiver, second round), Ryan Denney (second round, defensive end))
'03: 6/8 (starters: Willis McGahee (running back, first round), Chris Kelsay (defensive end, second round); backups: Angelo Crowell (linebacker, third round), Sam Aiken (wide receiver, fourth round), Mario Haggan (linebacker, seventh round); currently on reserve lists: Angelo Crowell (linebacker, third round))
Roster: 11 out of 47 23.4% (10)
Starters: 5 out of 47 10.6% (11)
NY JETS
'99: 0/8
'00: 3/8 (starters: Shaun Ellis (defensive end, first round), Chad Pennington (quarterback, first round), Laveranues Coles (wide receiver, third round))
'01: 0/6
'02: 1/5 (backups: Chris Baker (tight end, third round))
'03: 3/7 (starters: DeWayne Robertson (defensive tackle, first round), B.J. Askew (fullback, third round); backups: Victor Hobson (linebacker, second round))
Roster: 7 out of 34 20.6% (17)
Starters: 5 out of 34 14.7% (12)
RAVENS
'99: 1/4 (starters: Chris McAlister (cornerback, first round); currently on reserve lists: Edwin Mulitalo (guard, fourth round))
'00: 2/6 (starters: Jamal Lewis (running back, first round), Adalius Thomas (linebacker, sixth round))
'01: 1/7 (starters: Todd Heap (tight end, first round))
'02: 1/10 (starters: Ed Reed (safety, first round))
'03: 6/11 (starters: Terrell Suggs (linebacker, first round), Tony Pashos (offensive tackle, fifth round); backups: Musa Smith (running back, third round), Jarret Johnson (linebacker, fourth round), Aubrayo Franklin (defensive tackle, fifth round), Gerome Sapp (safety, sixth round))
Roster: 11 out of 38 28.9% (3)
Starters: 7 out of 38 18.4% (5)
BENGALS
'99: 0/9
'00: 0/7
'01: 4/7 (starters: Justin Smith (defensive end, first round), Chad Johnson (wide receiver, second round), Rudi Johnson (running back, fourth round), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (wide receiver, seventh round))
'02: 1/6 (starters: Levi Jones (offensive tackle, first round))
'03: 4/9 (starters: Carson Palmer (quarterback, first round), Eric Steinbach (guard, second round), Jeremi Johnson (fullback, fourth round); backups: Scott Kooistra (offensive tackle, seventh round))
Roster: 9 out of 38 23.7% (8)
Starters: 8 out of 38 21.1% (2)
STEELERS
'99: 3/11 (starters: Joey Porter (linebacker, third round), Aaron Smith (defensive end, fourth round); backups: Jerame Tuman (tight end, fifth round)
'00: 2/9 (starters: Marvel Smith (offensive tackle, second round), Clark Haggans (linebacker, fifth round))
'01: 2/7 (starters: Casey Hampton (defensive tackle, first round); backups: Rodney Bailey (defensive end, sixth round))
'02: 4/8 (starters: Kendall Simmons (guard, first round), Larry Foote (linebacker, fourth round), Brett Keisel (defensive end, seventh round); currently on reserved lists: Verron Haynes (running back, fifth round))
'03: 2/5 (starters: Troy Polamalu (safety, first round), Ike Taylor (cornerback, fourth round))
Roster: 13 out of 40 32.5% (1)
Starters: 10 out of 40 25% (1)
BROWNS
'99: 1/11 (currently on reserve lists: Daylon McCutcheon (cornerback, third round))
'00: 1/13 (backups: Dennis Northcutt (wide receiver, second round))
'01: 0/8
'02: 1/8 (starters: Andra Davis (linebacker, fifth round))
'03: 2/7 (starters: Ryan Pontbriand (long-snapper, fifth round); backups: Chaun Thompson (linebacker, second round))
Roster: 5 out of 47 10.6% (31)
Starters: 2 out of 47 4.3% (32)
TEXANS
'02: 3/12 (starters: David Carr (quarterback, first round), Chester Pitts (guard, second round); backups: Fred Weary (guard, third round))
'03: 2/10 (starters: Andre Johnson (wide receiver, first round); currently on reserve lists: Domanick Davis (running back, third round))
Roster: 5 out of 22 22.7% (11)
Starters: 3 out of 22 13.6% (14)
COLTS
'99: 1/7 (starters: Hunter Smith (punter, seventh round))
'00: 1/7 (backups: Rob Morris (linebacker, first round))
'01: 2/7 (starters: Reggie Wayne (wide receiver, first round), Ryan Diem (offensive tackle, fourth round))
'02: 1/8 (starters: Dwight Freeney (defensive end, first round))
'03: 4/8 (starters: Dallas Clark (tight end, first round), Robert Mathis, (defensive end, fifth round), Cato June (linebacker, sixth round); currently on reserve lists: Mike Doss (safety, second round))
Roster: 9 out of 37 24.3% (7)
Starters: 7 out of 37 18.9% (3)
JAGUARS
'99: 0/8
'00: 1/11 (starters: Brad Meester (center, second round))
'01: 2/10 (starters: Marcus Stroud (defensive tackle, first round), Maurice Williams (offensive tackle, second round))
'02: 2/9 (starters: John Henderson (defensive tackle, first round), David Garrard (quarterback, fourth round))
'03: 5/9 (starters: Rashean Mathis (cornerback, second round), Vince Manuwai (guard, third round), George Wighster (tight end, fourth round); backups: LeBrandon Toefield (running back, fourth round); currently on reserve lists: Byron Leftwich (quarterback, first round))
Roster: 10 out of 47 21.3% (15)
Starters: 8 out of 47 17% (7)
TITANS
'99: 1/8 (currently on reserve lists: Zach Piller (guard, third round))
'00: 3/10 (starters: Keith Bulluck (linebacker, first round), Peter Sirmon (linebacker, fourth round); currently on reserve lists: Erron Kinney (tight end, third round))
'01: 0/7
'02: 1/10 (starters: Albert Haynesworth (defensive tackle, first round))
'03: 4/6 (backups: Andre Woolfolk (cornerback, first round), Chris Brown (running back third round), Donnie Nickey (safety, fifth round); currently on reserve lists: Rien Long (defensive tackle, fourth round))
Roster: 9 out of 41 22% (13)
Starters: 3 out of 41 7.3% (31)
BRONCOS
'99: 1/12 (starters: Al Wilson (linebacker, first round))
'00: 2/10 (starters: Ian Gold (linebacker, second round), Carlisle Cooper (guard, fourth round))
'01: 1/6 (starters: Ben Hamilton (guard, fourth round))
'02: 1/8 (currently on reserved lists: Sam Brandon (defensive back, fourth round))
'03: 1/10 (backups: George Foster (offensive tackle, first round))
Roster: 6 out of 46 13% (30)
Starters: 4 out of 46 8.7% (29)
CHIEFS
'99: 0/6
'00: 3/8 (starters: Greg Wesley (safety, third round); backups: Dante Hall (wide receiver, fifth round); currently on reserve lists: William Bartee (safety, second round))
'01: 0/9
'02: 1/5 (backups: Ryan Sims (defensive tackle, first round))
'03: 4/8 (starters: Larry Johnson (running back, first round), Kawika Mitchell (linebacker, second round), Jordan Black (offensive tackle, fifth round); backups: Jimmy Wilkerson (defensive tackle, sixth round))
Roster: 8 out of 36 22.2% (12)
Starters: 4 out of 36 11.1% (23)
RAIDERS
'99: 0/7
'00: 3/6 (starters: Sebastian Janikowski (kicker, first round), Shane Lechler (punter, fifth round); backups: Jerry Porter (wide receiver, second round))
'01: 1/7 (backups: Marques Tuiasosopo (quarterback, second round))
'02: 2/8 (starters: Langston Walker (offensive tackle, second round); backups: Ronald Curry (wide receiver, seventh round))
'03: 4/10 (starters: Tyler Brayton (defensive end, first round), Nnamdi Asomugha (cornerback, first round), Justin Fargas (running back, third round), Sam Williams (linebacker, third round))
Roster: 10 out of 38 26.3% (5)
Starters: 7 out of 38 18.4% (4)
CHARGERS
'99: 0/6
'00: 0/8
'01: 2/8 (starters: Ladainian Tomlinson (running back, first round); backups: Carlos Polk (linebacker, fourth round))
'02: 1/8 (starters: Quentin Jammer (cornerback, first round))
'03: 5/8 (starters: Terrence Kiel (safety, second round), Drayton Florence (cornerback, second round), Mike Scifres (punter, fifth round); backups: Matt Wilhelm (linebacker, fourth round), Andrew Pinnock (fullback, seventh round))
Roster: 8 out of 38 21.1% (16)
Starters: 5 out of 38 13.2% (15)
COWBOYS
'99: 0/8
'00: 0/5
'01: 0/9
'02: 2/9 (starters: Roy Williams (safety, first round), Andre Gurode (center, second round))
'03: 4/7(starters: Terrence Newman (cornerback, first round), Jason Witten (tight end, third round), Bradie James (linebacker, fourth round); backups: Al Johnson (center, second round))
Roster: 6 out of 38 15.8% (26)
Starters: 5 out of 38 13.2% (16)
GIANTS
'99: 1/10 (backups: Luke Petitgout (offensive tackle, first round))
'00: 1/7 (starters: Brandon Short (linbacker, fourth round))
'01: 0/7
'02: 2/7 (starters: Jeremy Shockey (tight end, first round), Tim Carter (wide receiver, second round))
'03: 6/11 (starters: Osi Umenyiora (defensive end, second round), David Diehl (guard, fifth round); backups: William Joseph (defensive end, first round), Visanthe Shiancoe (tight end, third round), David Tyree (wide receiver, sixth round), Frank Walker (cornerback, sixth round))
Roster: 10 out of 42 23.8% (9)
Starters: 5 out of 42 11.9% (21)
EAGLES
'99: 1/10 (currently on reserve lists: Donovan McNabb (quarterback, first round))
'00: 0/7
'01: 2/6 (backups: Correll Buckhalter (running back, fourth round), A.J. Feeley (quarterback, fifth round))
'02: 4/8 (starters: Lito Sheppard (cornerback, first round), Sheldon Brown (cornerback, second round), Brian Westbrook (running back, third round); backups: Michael Lewis (safety, second round))
'03: 2/6 (starters: L.J. Smith (tight end, second round); backups: Jerome McDougal (defensive end, first round))
Roster: 9 out of 37 24.3% (7)
Starters: 4 out of 37 10.8% (24)
REDSKINS
'99: 1/6 (starters: Jon Jansen (offensive tackle, second round))
'00: 1/8 (starters: Chris Samuels (offensive tackle, first round))
'01: 0/5
'02: 2/10 (starters: Ladell Betts (running back, second round); backups: Rock Cartwright (running back, seventh round))
'03: 1/3 (starters: Derrick Dockery (guard, third round))
5 out of 32 15.6% (27)
4 out of 32 12.5% (18)
BEARS
'99: 0/13
'00: 2/9 (starters: Brian Urlacher (linebacker, first round); currently on reserve lists: Mike Brown (safety, second round))
'01: 0/6
'02: 3/9 (starters: Alex Brown (defensive end, fourth round); backups: Terrence Metcalf (guard, third round), Adrian Peterson (running back, sixth round))
'03: 5/12 (starters: Rex Grossman (quarterback, third round), Lance Briggs (linebacker, third round), Todd Johnson (safety, fourth round), Ian Scott (defensive tackle, fourth round); backups: Justin Gage (wide receiver, fifth round))
Roster: 10 out of 49 20.4% (19)
Starter: 6 out of 49 12.2% (19)
LIONS
'99: 1/7 (starters: Jared DeVries (defensive end, third round))
'00: 0/6
'01: 3/6 (starters: Jeff Backus (offensive tackle, first round), Dominic Raiola (center, second round); currently on reserve lists: Shaun Rogers (defensive tackle, second round)
'02: 1/9 (starters: Kalimba Edwards (defensive end, second round))
'03: 3/11 (starters: Boss Bailey (linebacker, second round), Cory Redding (defensive tackle, third round), Terrence Holt (safety, fifth round))
Roster: 8 out of 39 20.5% (18)
Starters: 7 out of 39 17.9% (6)
PACKERS
'99: 1/12 (starters: Donald Driver (wide receiver, seventh round))
'00: 4/13(starters: Bubba Franks (tight end, first round), Chad Clifton (offensive tackle, second round), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (defensive end, fifth round); backups: Mark Tauscher (offensive tackle, seventh round))
'01: 2/6 (backups: David Martin (tight end, sixth round); currently on reserve lists: Robert Ferguson (wide receiver, second round))
'02: 1/6 (starters: Aaron Kampman (defensive end, fifth round))
'03: 1/9 (starters: Nick Barnett (linbacker, first round))
Roster: 9 out of 46 19.6% (20)
Starters: 6 out of 46 13% (17)
VIKINGS
'99: 1/9 (starters: Jim Kleinsasser (tight end, second round))
'00: 0/10
'01: 0/8
'02: 1/7 (starters: Bryant McKinnie (offensive tackle, first round))
'03: 2/7 (starters: Kevin Williams (defensive tackle, first round), EJ Henderson (linebacker, second round))
Roster: 4 out of 41 9.8% (32)
Starters: 4 out of 41 9.8% (26)
FALCONS
'99: 2/9 (starters: Todd McClure (center, seventh round); currently on reserve lists: Patrick Kerney (defensive end, first round))
'00: 0/6
'01: 3/10 (starters: Michael Vick (quarterback, first round), Alge Crumpler (tight end, second round); currently on reserve lists: Kynan Forney (guard, seventh round))
'02: 0/8
'03: 1/6 (starters: Justin Griffith (fullback, fourth round))
Roster: 6 out of 39 15.4% (28)
Starters: 4 out of 39 10.3% (25)
PANTHERS
'99: 1/5 (starters: Mike Rucker (defensive end, second round))
'00: 0/7
'01: 4/8 (starters: Kris Jenkins (defensive tackle, second round), Steve Smith (wide receiver, third round); backups: Chris Weinke (quarterback, fourth round); currently on reserve lists: Dan Morgan (linebacker, first round))
'02: 2/9 (starters: Julius Peppers (defensive end, first round), Deshaun Foster (running back, second round))
'03: 4/8 (starters: Jordan Gross (offensive tackle, first round); backups: Colin Branch (safety, fourth round), Kindal Moorehead, (defensive tackle, fifth round); currently on reserve lists: Mike Seidman (tight end, third round))
Roster: 11 out of 37 29.7% (2)
Starters: 6 out of 37 16.2% (10)
SAINTS
'99: 0/1
'00: 1/9 (starters: Kevin Houser (long snapper, seventh round))
'01: 1/7 (starters: Deuce McAllister (running back, first round))
'02: 2/9 (starters: Charles Grant (defensive end, first round); currently on reserve lists: James Allen (linebacker, third round))
'03: 2/7 (starters: Jon Stinchcomb (offensive tackle, second round); backups: Montrae Holland (guard, fourth round))
Roster: 6 out of 33 18.2% (24)
Starters: 4 out of 33 12.1% (20)
BUCS
'99: 0/8
'00: 0/5
'01: 2/9 (starters: Ellis Wyms (defensive tackle, sixth round); currently on reserve lists: Kenyatta Walker (offensive tackle, first round))
'02: 1/8 (starters: Jermaine Phillips (safety, fifth round))
'03: 4/6 (starters: Dewayne White (defensive end, second round), Sean Mahan (guard, fifth round); backups: Torrie Cox: (cornerback, sixth round); currently on reserve lists: Chris Simms (quarterback, third round))
Roster: 7 out of 36 19.4% (21)
Starters: 4 out of 36 11.1% (22)
CARDINALS
'99: 0/11
'00: 0/8
'01: 2/10 (starters: Leonard Davis (offensive tackle, first round), Adrian Wilson (safety, third round))
'02: 0/8
'03: 6/7 (starters: Bryant Johnson (wide receiver, first round), Anquan Boldin (wide receiver, second round), Gerald Hayes (linbacker, third round), Reggie Wells (offensive tackle, sixth round); backups: Calvin Pace (defensive end, first round), Kenny King (defensive tackle, fifth round))
Roster: 8 out of 44 18.2% (24)
Starters: 6 out of 44 13.6% (13)
RAMS
'99: 1/7 (starters: Torry Holt (wide receiver, first round))
'00: 0/7
'01: 1/9 (backups: Jerametrius Butler (cornerback, fifth round))
'02: 2/8 (starters: Chris Massey (long snapper, seventh round); currently on reserve lists: Travis Fisher (cornerback, second round))
'03: 4/11 (starters: Jimmy Kennedy (defensive tackle, first round), Pisa Tinoisamoa (linebacker, second round); backups: Kevin Curtis (wide receiver, third round), Shaun McDonald (wide receiver, fourth round))
Roster: 8 out of 42 19.1% (22)
Starters: 4 out of 42 9.5% (27)
49ERS
'99: 0/8
'00: 2/11 (starters: Jeff Ulbrich (linebacker, third round), Brian Jennings (long snapper, seventh round))
'01: 1/8 (backups: Eric Johnson (tight end, seventh round))
'02: 1/10 (starters: Eric Heitmann (center, seventh round))
'03: 3/7 (starters: Kwame Harris (offensive tackle, first round), Arnaz Battle (wide receiver, sixth round); backups: Anthony Adams (defensive tackle, second round))
Roster: 7 out of 44 15.9% (25)
Starters: 4 out of 44 9.1% (28)
SEAHAWKS
'99: 0/7
'00: 2/9 (starters: Shaun Alexander (running back, first round), Darrell Jackson (wide receiver, third round))
'01: 1/12 (starters: Pork Chop Womack (guard, fourth round))
'02: 3/10 (starters: Jerramy Stevens (tight end, first round), Rocky Bernard (defensive tackle, fifth round); backups: Maurice Morris (running back, second round))
'03: 4/9 (starters: Marcus Trufant (cornerback, first round), Ken Hamlin (safety, second round), Josh Brown (kicker, seventh round); backups: Seneca Wallace (quarterback, fourth round))
Roster: 10 out of 47 21.3% (15)
Starters: 8 out of 47 17.0% (9)